August 30, 2025 | By Michael A. Harris

The EB‑5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 introduced reserved visa categories to channel investment toward Targeted Employment Areas (TEAs). Under this structure, approximately 20% of annual EB‑5 visas (≈2,000 visas) are reserved for projects in rural areas, 10% (≈1,000 visas) for high‑unemployment areas (HUA) and 2% (≈200 visas) for infrastructure projects. Visas not used in these categories within the first two fiscal years roll over to other EB‑5 categories, and if still unused after the second fiscal year can increase the unreserved pool [1]. In any fiscal year when the annual quota of EB-5 visas is fully utilized, the law says that each country may use no more than 7% of visas in a given category, with excess numbers from under‑used countries allocated to oversubscribed countries. Note that these new categories are open only to investors who filed an I‑526/I‑526E petition after March 15, 2022 (post‑RIA petitions).

Current Usage of Reserved Visas

AIIA perspective

In its FOIA‑based analysis, the American Immigrant Investor Alliance (AIIA) found that USCIS had approved 351 HUA petitions and 1,126 rural petitions as of 1/31/2025 [2]. Assuming about two visas per petition (principal plus derivative), these approvals translate to roughly 700–750 HUA visas and 2,250 rural visas, which are still within a single fiscal year’s supply.

IIUSA perspective

Invest in the USA (IIUSA) compiles U.S. State Department visa issuance statistics. Its FY2025 EB‑5 visa availability table shows that 4,416 rural, 2,208 HUA and 442 infrastructure visas were available for the reserved categories after accounting for carry‑over [1]. Through May 31 2025, consular posts had issued 402 rural visas (9% of the rural allocation), 166 HUA visas (8% of the HUA allocation) and zero infrastructure visas, while 8,401 unreserved visas (72% of the unreserved allocation) were issued [1]. The data also reveal that 3,319 unreserved visas, 4,014 rural visas and 2,042 HUA visas remained unused [1]. Consequently, both datasets confirm that reserved visas remain substantially under‑utilized; the difference lies in AIIA reporting I‑526 approvals and IIUSA reporting actual visa issuance.

Demand for Reserved Visas: I‑526/I‑526E Filing Data

Volume of filings

AIIA’s FOIA data capture filing demand. Between 4/01/2022 and 1/31/2025 investors filed 5,191 HUA petitions and 4,329 rural petitions [3]. Earlier data through July 31 2024 showed 3,995 HUA filings and 2,809 rural filings [4]. These figures demonstrate rapid growth during 2024 (partly driven by a fee increase) and reveal that the rural category has almost caught up to HUA filings [4].

IIUSA’s dashboard does not track I‑526 filings; instead it records visa issuance. In FY2024, consular and adjustment‑of‑status processing combined to issue only 332 rural visas and 91 HUA visas worldwide [5]. The disparity between more than 4,300 rural filings (AIIA) and 332 rural visas issued (IIUSA) underscores the lag between petition filings and visa delivery.

Ratio of filings to visa supply

AIIA estimates that HUA filings through January 2025 equate to about 10,382 visa applicants (assuming two visas per petition) and rural filings equate to about 8,658 applicants [6]. With only 2,208 HUA visas and 4,416 rural visas available in FY2025 (including carry‑over) [1], demand already exceeds supply by factors of roughly 5 to 10. By comparison, IIUSA’s visa‑issuance data show that in FY2024 only 423 reserved visas (332 rural + 91 HUA) were actually used [5], suggesting that a large pipeline of approved investors has yet to claim reserved visas.

Demand from China and India

AIIA’s filing data reveal a heavy concentration from China and India: 2,380 HUA and 2,684 rural petitions from Chinese nationals, and 883 HUA and 847 rural petitions from Indians [3]. Assuming two visas per petition, China’s demand for rural and HUA visas is about 5,368 and 4,760 visas, respectively, while India’s demand is roughly 1,694 rural and 1,766 HUA visas. IIUSA’s FY2024 visa‑usage summary shows that Chinese investors actually used 201 rural and 34 HUA reserved visas and Indian investors used 93 rural and 12 HUA reserved visas [5], far fewer than the number of filings. This gap illustrates how slowly I‑526 approvals are converting into visas and suggests that Chinese and Indian applicants are still in the early stages of the pipeline.

When Could Backlogs Emerge?

General outlook

A backlog arises once the number of qualified investors exceeds the available visas. Because USCIS has adjudicated very few HUA petitions, the Department of State has not yet imposed a priority date for either reserved category. AIIA predicts that the rural category will hit a priority date first because more rural petitions have already been approved [7]. IIUSA’s data corroborate that reserved visas remain largely unused: by May 31, 2025, consulates had issued only 402 rural visas and 166 HUA visas [1], leaving thousands of visas unused. This unused capacity delays retrogression even though filings vastly exceed supply.

Country‑Specific Considerations

China. AIIA estimates that China accounts for over half of all post‑RIA filings [3]. Yet IIUSA reports that Chinese nationals used only 201 rural and 34 HUA reserved visas in FY2024 [5] and 267 reserved visas (mostly rural) in FY2025 through May [8]. Because China’s demand far outstrips its 7% share of reserved visas, a backlog will develop quickly once USCIS processes more petitions. The current absence of retrogression simply reflects low adjudication volumes and consular throughput.

India. India’s filing volume (≈18% of post‑RIA petitions) is lower than China’s but still significant [3]. IIUSA’s FY2024 data show Indian investors used 93 rural and 12 HUA reserved visas [5] and FY2025 (through May) data show 55 RC‑rural and 23 RC‑HUA visas issued to Indian nationals [8]. These figures demonstrate that Indians are beginning to draw on the reserved pool, but their pipeline remains largely unconverted. Because India also faces a 7% cap, a backlog will emerge once more petitions are adjudicated.

Assessment of Waiting Times and Practical Recomendations

Early access but looming backlogs

At present, both IIUSA and AIIA data indicate that reserved EB‑5 visas are under‑utilized. Investors who receive I‑526E approvals can secure visas relatively quickly because visa numbers remain available; this is evident from the low issuance figures, only 402 rural and 166 HUA visas issued during the first eight months of FY2025 [1]. However, the backlog is growing invisibly as thousands of petitions await adjudication. Once USCIS increases processing, the volume of approved investors will overwhelm the annual quotas.

Estimated wait times for India and China

AIIA projects approximate wait times of ten years for HUA and four years for rural investors filing after January 2025, assuming first‑in‑first‑out processing with no country limit [9]. These estimates do not reflect the per‑country cap; when applied, Chinese and Indian wait times will be considerably longer. IIUSA’s FY2024 visa‑usage data show that China consumed 56% of all reserved visas and India 25% [5]. At this pace, and given the pipeline of filings, Chinese rural investors could face wait times well above a decade once a priority date is established. Indian investors may see shorter delays because their demand is smaller, but they should still prepare for waits exceeding AIIA’s four‑year rural estimate.

Mitigation strategies

1. File early and monitor processing trends.

Investors should submit I‑526E petitions promptly to secure a favorable priority date while reserved categories remain current.

2.Consider rural investments for faster visa access.

The rural pool offers twice as many visas as the HUA pool and is being used more slowly. IIUSA data show that only 402 of 4,416 available rural visas were issued through May 31, 2025 [1], suggesting continued availability in the near term.

3. Be prepared to convert to unreserved visas.

After I‑526E approval, TEA investors may elect unreserved visas if reserved categories retrogress. AIIA notes that the pre‑RIA unreserved backlog may be cleared within five years for India and eight years for China, potentially making unreserved visas a faster alternative [10].

4. Plan for extended timelines and counsel.

Given the large discrepancy between filings and visa usage, Chinese and Indian investors should budget for extended waits. Engaging experienced counsel is essential to navigate country‑specific allocations, visa‑number movement and strategic choices (e.g., cross‑chargeability, direct vs regional‑center investments).

Conclusion

Comparing AIIA’s FOIA data on petition filings and approvals with IIUSA’s visa‑issuance statistics reveals latent backlogs in the reserved EB‑5 categories. AIIA’s numbers show tremendous demand at more than 9,500 post‑RIA petitions and a pipeline of ≈19,000 visa applicants, yet IIUSA’s data show that only a few hundred reserved visas have actually been used[5]. Reserved visas therefore remain current, providing a window of opportunity for new investors, but the mismatch between filings and usage means that backlog pressures are building beneath the surface. Rural petitions are more likely to retrogress sooner because more approvals have been issued, yet the HUA pipeline is even larger and will eventually result in longer waits. Chinese and Indian investors, who account for the majority of filings, should anticipate significant delays once approvals accelerate and should develop strategies, such as rural investments and potential conversion to unreserved visas, or to mitigate future wait times.

[1] [5] [8] EB-5 Visa Data Dashboard – Visa Data Hub. Invest In the USA. See https://iiusa.org/eb5-visa-data-dashboard/.

[2] [7] AIIA FOIA Series: Post RIA Petition Approval Statistics for January 2025. American Immigrant Investor Alliance. See https://goaiia.org/aiia-foia-series-post-ria-approval-statistics-for-january-2025/.

[3] [6] [9] [10] AIIA FOIA Series: Updated I-526E Inventory Statistics for January 2025. American Immigrant Investor Alliance. See https://goaiia.org/aiia-foia-series-updated-i-526e-inventory-statistics-for-january-2025/

[4] AIIA FOIA Series: Updated I-526E Inventory Statistics for July 2024. American Immigrant Investor Alliance. See https://goaiia.org/aiia-foia-series-updated-i-526e-inventory-statistics-for-july-2024/.